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Four policies to end the sale of cigarettes and
smoking tobacco in New Zealand by 2020
Murray Laugesen, Marewa Glover, Trish Fraser, Ross
McCormick, John Scott
BackgroundThe Māori Affairs Parliamentary Select Committee is
conducting an Inquiry into the tobacco industry and the consequences of tobacco
use for Māori, and has called for submissions on policy and legislative
measures needed to address the Inquiry’s findings. Board members of End
Smoking New Zealand, a charitable trust, here propose a set of national policies
designed to give effect to the Inquiry’s concerns and show how the sale of
commercial cigarettes and smoking tobacco can be phased out by 2020.
Smoking is reducing extremely slowly because smokers are
addicted to smoking legally-sold commercial cigarettes, aided by manufacturers
maintaining the supply. In 2004, Crane emphasised that nicotine inhaled without
the smoke, could safely supply the nicotine hit that smokers craved, and provide
the option of temporary nicotine replacement in place of smoking
abstinence.1
The use of nicotine instead of smoking (harm reduction) is
developed further in this paper. Researchers in 2005 proposed a tobacco control
authority to regulate tobacco products,2 but
cigarettes would still kill by the thousand, whether government-regulated or
not. As documented in this Journal in
2007,3 and now updated, End Smoking NZ board
members have come to independently agree on the necessity of ending cigarette
sales altogether.
To replace cigarettes, nicotine products have advantages
over oral tobacco snuff: although oral snuff has much lower risks than smoking,
nicotine risks are lower; oral snuff is banned from sale; and some Māori
want an end to all tobacco product use. Nasal snuff remains legal, largely
unstudied, less toxic, but attracting miniscule sales.
In 2007, we said “This epidemic is spread by
commercial cigarettes, and will persist until society demands legislation to
outlaw their sale”.3 As society shows
increasing interest in ending cigarette sales, we describe the legislative
changes needed. Innovative policies are always challenged, particularly if they
appear to restrict freedom of choice or liberty, but the freedom of the next
generation from tobacco addiction is at stake.
Commercial cigarettes are not only lethal (killing one in
two persistent smokers)4 but they cannot be
made safe,5,6 despite tobacco company research
efforts. Eighty-five percent of New Zealand smokers want the toxins in cigarette
smoke reduced,7 but our own
research5,6 shows smoke toxicants cannot be
reduced to acceptable levels. Even if per-cigarette risk could be halved, one in
four smokers would die early.5
Since per cigarette harm cannot be lowered to an acceptable
level, and manufacturers wish to sell more not less, we conclude that reducing
cigarette harm depends on society supporting legislation to reduce the cigarette
supply, and phase out cigarette sales.
The cigarette deaths epidemic is man-made, and needs
effective government policy to end it. The Smoke-free Environments Act (SFE Act)
was (in 1990) the means of ending tobacco advertising and sponsorship, and of
ending smoking in offices and shops; and (in 2004) of ending smoking in
restaurants, bars, all workplaces, school grounds and indoor public places.
The outcome of these changes brought about by the SFE Act
was uncertain until late in the parliamentary process. Now these changes enjoy
high public support. The task is now to once again amend the SFE Act, to spell
out the policies to mandate the end of the cigarette deaths epidemic, and save
the $56 million now spent annually on tobacco
control,8 by ending commercial cigarette sales
altogether.
The current situationNew Zealand’s tobacco control programme, now spending
$85 per smoker per year8 (recouped from tax on
2 to 3 weeks’ of smoking), has been more comprehensive and better funded
since 2003, yet one in five adults were smoking in
2008.9 Cigarette smoking in the 2002–2006
period killed an estimated 4500 to 5000 New Zealanders each
year;10 indeed, since 1950, the premature
deaths of over 160,000 New Zealanders are attributable to smoking
cigarettes.11
Two in five Māori adults
smoke10 and over one-fifth of all cigarettes
smoked are smoked by
Māori,10,12—mainly roll-your-own
(RYO) cigarettes, which attract less tax. The national Māori lung cancer
mortality rate is three times the non-Māori
rate,12 and similarly the hospitalisation rate
for chronic obstructive respiratory disease (COPD; often called smokers’
lung) was three times the non-Māori rate in Canterbury [based on the
one-tick ethnic classification used by Canterbury’s largest primary health
organisation for hospital patients and its enrolled population for 2006–7
(Prof L Malcolm, personal communication, 2009)].
One-third of smokers (over 200,000) said they had quit for
more than 24 hours in 2008, (median number of attempts = 2, or some 1000 serious
quit attempts every day),13 yet cigarette
consumption is not reducing. From 2003 to 2009, the number of cigarettes
released for sale (counting 0.5 g tobacco per RYO cigarette) remained above 4
billion annually,14 while consumption per adult
(smoker or not) decreased slightly only in 2009. This is despite more
comprehensive controls and improved smoking cessation services. In 2006, the
Census reported that 654,000 were daily smokers, that is 20.7% of the adult
population age 15 and over.15
The proportion of adolescents aged 14–15 years,
smoking daily, weekly or monthly, declined from 29% in 1999 to 14% in
2008.16 Many, however, begin smoking in late
adolescence, so that 16,000 youth each year enter their 20s as
smokers.15 In 2008, 19,600 adults age
15–64 years said they quit smoking successfully (that is, for 6 to 12
months)13 but even adding 5000 cigarette
deaths, the smoking population is declining by only 1% per year, suggesting that
despite increased efforts by the Ministry of Health, smoking is here for another
century.
No main political party is yet in support of ending tobacco
sales. Hone Harawira MP and the Māori Party wish to end tobacco product
sales over the next decade, and half the public
agree,17 as do one in four
smokers;18 indeed if effective nicotine-only
substitutes are made available, nearly half of smokers would agree
“cigarettes and tobacco should not be sold in New Zealand in 10 years
time”.7
The proposed policiesWith the aim of phasing out sales of cigarettes and tobacco
for smoking by 2020, we propose a set of policies to fundamentally change the
tobacco to nicotine product ratios of relative prices, availability, and
addictiveness, to make the healthy choice the easy and less costly choice.
Cigarettes and cigarette tobacco, cigars, cigarillos, and
pipe tobacco sales (hereafter, cigarettes) would all be phased out gradually by
increasing tobacco tax in 2010, and then amending the SFE Act, to usher in
stepwise changes to be completed by 2020 to:
Tobacco products for smoking would be defined in
the Act as toxic, no longer to be imported, sold or exported. The proposed
policies would preserve current freedoms in law for people to smoke, possess or
grow tobacco for private use, and thus differing markedly from the policy on
cannabis, which cannot be smoked, owned or grown for private use. It could take
3 years to amend the SFE Act, and another 3 to 7 years to implement the phase
out.
Increasing tobacco tax and priceBackground—The last two
increases in cigarette taxes and price above the level of inflation were in May
2000, and then April 2010. In March 2010, smokers paid 31 cents tax per
factory-made cigarette but only 20 cents tax per RYO cigarette if rolled to
contain the average weight of 0.5 g tobacco.6
New Zealand RYO smokers we studied inhaled no less carbon monoxide than
factory-made cigarette smokers;6 the harm per
cigarette is the same for each type of cigarette; the cigarette is the unit of
harm, meriting taxation on a per cigarette
basis.6
Proposal—Harmonisation
of the tax rates for RYO and packet cigarettes is thus a
priority19 which in 2010 would have required
smokers to pay 60% more per RYO cigarette. Instead, on 28 April 2010 Parliament
raised tobacco excise tax on RYOs by 24% initially, with further increases in
2011 and 2012; by 40% in total. The new RYO tax rate was equalised as for the
tobacco weight in a factory-made (FM) cigarette which contains 0.7 g on average.
But as noted, the average RYO cigarette contains 0.5 g. So now although all
cigarettes have increased in price, for FM smokers reluctant to quit smoking,
RYO smoking may still cost less, so that switching to RYOs may still occur
instead of quitting. In future years, this anomaly hopefully will be
corrected.
Secondly, uniformly increased tax rates for all cigarettes
and smoking tobacco are also needed. Based on historical data, we assume the
price recommended by the manufacturers to retailers will increase by the same
percentage as the tax increase; and that price responsiveness will ensure sales
decrease by 5% for a 10% increase in price.19
On 28 April 2010 Parliament also voted (118 for versus 4
against) to raise tobacco tax on all FM cigarettes by 10% initially and by a
total of 30% by 2012. The Ministry of Health expected the packet price for 25s
to increase from $13.00 to $17.30 (an increase of 33%), and for 30 g of RYO
tobacco from $21.30 to $29.80, a 40% increase.
Support—Surveys show New Zealand
smokers support increased tax on cigarettes if it is used to help them quit
smoking and for health promotion.18 It is not
earmarked in this way, but quit smoking services are generally free or
subsidised.
Feasibility—Past cigarette tax
increases in New Zealand show price rises reduce cigarette sales volumes, and
also the numbers smoking.20
Caveats—True, tobacco tax increases
can induce financial hardship and resulting ill health in families if smoking
continues, but overall, increased tobacco tax benefits poor families far more;
the harms from smoking are far greater than harms from tobacco
tax.21
Secondly, if the tax is unevenly applied, the number smoking
may not reduce. For example, in 2000, when tax and price were increased 20%,
80,000 smokers (12%) quit, but resumed smoking within 3 months, switching to
cheaper RYOs.22
Thirdly, when prices increase greatly, 33% to 40% in the
present case, prediction of consumption is less certain. As the four policies
take effect, however, government would face gradual decline in its revenue from
tobacco tax—currently over 1 billion dollars a
year.23 No wealth is lost, however, as tax is a
transfer payment, which Treasury would then, over 5–10 years, recoup from
another source.
Benefits—In 2010–2012, the
government’s tax increases are expected to lower consumption by around
18%, a decrease of some 0.8 billion cigarettes annually. The Ministry of Health
conservatively estimates 500 cigarette deaths averted over the next 20 years.
These benefits depend on smokers quitting and not switching to RYOs instead.
Decreasing the supply and availability of cigarettesBackground—Every reduction in supply
reduces sales, consumption and harm in equal proportion. Decreased supply as a
standalone policy implies unmet demand (scarcity) and risk of a black market,
which can, however, be minimised by companion policies that lower demand in
tandem.
Proposal—Government would amend the
SFE Act to allocate national sales quotas per manufacturer or importer, with
stepwise reduction of quotas, either by mandated reduction, or by “cap and
trade”. Supply quotas could commence at 95% of the previous year’s
sales, and then be reduced further by say 5% every 6 months. Exceeding quotas
would be made a serious offence.
Efficacy—Efficacy of reduction of
sales quota is not in doubt, and reductions would be reflected at retail within
weeks or months.
Feasibility—It is simpler to reduce
quotas for manufacturers and importers (fewer than 20) than to gradually reduce
the number of shops (8000 to 9000 currently) selling tobacco, which would simply
concentrate sales in remaining shops, with little reduction in overall sales for
years.
Reducing supply induces scarcity and raises the price, which
in turn lowers sales. Real cigarette prices would rise steadily, in addition to
any increase in price due to increased tax. Using government-mandated targets or
‘cap and trade’, government caps the quotas, and manufacturers with
retailers set the price. With cap and trade, however, manufacturers trade their
quota permits, and set prices higher to recover their costs, thus expediting the
decline in supply.
Cap and trade—used in environmental economics for
recruiting big polluters to reduce their emissions—was first proposed for
lowering cigarette consumption by Senator Enzi in the United States in
2007.24 According to its inventor, economist
Thomas Crocker, cap and trade is best suited to fixing discrete problems, where
a government has the power to apply it and obtain a rapid fix to limit a known
harm.25
Caveats—As supply is reduced, smokers
perforce smoke fewer cigarettes, and may at first smoke their supply more
intensively, neutralising any health gain. Some smokers may quit, leaving more
cigarettes per remaining smoker. Eventually, however, as supply reduces further
and prices rise, the pressure to quit would gradually increase.
Media campaigns, reduction of nicotine per cigarette, and
approval of alternative products for commercial sale, can encourage smokers to
accept this situation as an opportunity to quit smoking. Every smoker quitting
reduces demand for black market tobacco derived from burglaries, smuggling, or
on-selling from home plots.
Border security services already inspect luggage, freight,
parcels, and shipping containers: tobacco import duty payable on a container of
contraband cigarettes is currently 3 million dollars. Unburnt tobacco emits
volatiles detectable by sniffer dogs and sniffer machines (SIFT-MS Voice200,
Syft Technologies Ltd, Christchurch).
Benefits—A law committing government
to reduce supply stepwise to zero ensures that commercial cigarettes will be
phased out and gives smokers reason to quit ahead of time. Additionally, if
reducing supply increased the price by say 60%, then using the usual cigarette
price elasticity of demand (minus 0.5), sales might reduce by 30%. Research is
required to clarify the effects of reductions in supply on price and sales,
comparing a mandated sinking lid with cap and trade.
Reducing the addictiveness of cigarettesBackground—One in four New Zealand
smokers aged 14–15 years show signs of addiction to smoking after just one
cigarette.26 Four out of five New Zealand
smokers say they are addicted to smoking
(tobacco).27 Addiction explains the high
proportion (over 90%) of serious attempts of 24 hours or more estimated from
Ministry of Health data as likely to be
unsuccessful.13
Nicotine is the main addictive drug in tobacco.
Manufacturers currently ensure the nicotine content of cigarettes (for example,
by choice of leaf blend) is sufficient to provide ample nicotine in the smoke,
so that even low nicotine-yield commercial cigarettes satisfy cravings.
Proposal—Currently cigarettes contain
an average 13 mg per cigarette,28 whereas 0.17
mg would no longer be addictive, (estimated at 25 cigarettes yielding less than
5 mg of nicotine, the estimated daily threshold for maintaining
addiction.29)
Nicotine could be reduced substantially in one of three
ways:
Support—85% of New Zealand
smokers want addictiveness reduced.18 The
nicotine sinking lid policy was adopted by the American Medical Association in
1998,30 but has not been implemented in any
country.
Efficacy—Nicotine reduction is
technically feasible. As average cigarette nicotine content reduces, smokers
inhale more smoke to maintain nicotine absorption, until at yields below 0.4 mg
nicotine per cigarette this is no longer
possible.31 At low doses, nicotine loses it
ability to provide smoking pleasure. Smoking a reduced nicotine content (RNC)
cigarette yielding only 0.05 mg nicotine nevertheless occupies 26% of the main
type (alpha4beta2)
of brain nicotine acetylcholine receptors;32
though sufficient to relieve cravings this does not release dopamine, the
pleasure drug, and so the cigarette does not
satisfy;33 motivation to smoke may be reduced
by nearly one-third.34
Feasibility—The reduction programme
can be easily monitored by bench top testing of products for nicotine content at
an independent government-approved laboratory, at manufacturer’s expense.
Nicotine tax is the most feasible method, delivering its main results in the
first year.
Caveats—With the sinking lid method,
cigarette imports would be limited to RNC brands of progressively lower
strength. Increased smoking to obtain sufficient nicotine (compensatory smoking)
was a concern in past years, but recent research indicates nicotine content can
be safely lowered to near zero, thus increasing the intake of smoke, carcinogens
or other toxicants little or not at all.35
Either RNC brands or commercial low yield brands can be
used.31
Expected benefits—The effects of a
nicotine tax on the average nicotine content of cigarettes sold will be seen
within months,. though how much this would reduce consumption and smoking
prevalence is difficult to forecast without clinical studies. In contrast, the
sinking lid policy has its main effects in the later stages. By the
5th of 7 steps, when nicotine content and yield
are 70% below previous levels, numbers smoking and cigarettes smoked will reduce
greatly. By the last or second to last reduction step, we assume 30% may have
quit due to lowered motivation.33
In addition, released from the need to smoke,
smokers will still be influenced by price and the attraction of nicotine in
substitute products. With all four policies simultaneously influencing remaining
smokers, we assume that most (say 80%) of smokers obtaining less than 0.05 mg
nicotine from their cigarette will quit entirely, or switch to nicotine products
during the final two steps of the reduction programme. Although in harmony with
the cited reports, this forecast needs testing in simulation-scenario
studies.36
Relapse—For those who make a serious
attempt to quit smoking, relapse is much less likely if the remaining
very-low-nicotine cigarettes on sale give reduced pleasure and satisfaction. In
2008, as noted above, one-third of New Zealand smokers (200,000) said they made
an average of two serious attempts to quit,13
(about 1000 attempts daily); and 20,000 (10%) succeeded in quitting without
relapse for 6–12 months.
Due to lack of satisfaction from trying cigarettes again, in
each of the final 2 years of mandated nicotine reduction (for example,
2018–2019) we would expect successful quitters to quadruple to 80,000 per
year, equivalent in total to 24% of those smoking in 2010. Further research may
refine these estimates.
Regulating to permit sale of more effective cigarette-substitutesBackground—Whereas medicinal nicotine
products are widely used and heavily subsidised by government, many smokers,
judging on overseas experience, will be happy to pay for the pleasure of
inhaling nicotine without the smoke until they wish to quit entirely.
We argue that the SFE Act already permits sale of effective
nicotine cigarette substitutes as tobacco products (that is, made from
tobacco).37 Substitute products on sale within
New Zealand are: 1) likely to facilitate legislation to end tobacco cigarette
sales; 2) replace the hand rituals and throat sensations of smoking; and 3)
provide nicotine to relieve cravings.38
Cigarette-like smoking-simulator devices include:
Proposal—The SFE Act would
permit the sale of nicotine products under regulations imposing
reasonable manufacturing standards, providing a shorter, less costly and more
expeditious route to licensed sale than currently possible for medicines under
the Medicines Act.
Support—Nearly half of smokers will
support ending cigarette sales if effective nicotine substitutes are
available,18 as against one in four smokers
otherwise in support.17
Efficacy—All three product types
above reduce cigarette cravings and increase blood
nicotine.38,39
Feasibility—Regulations under the SFE
Act could be drafted and passed within 12 months. Licensing as a cigarette
substitute, at the manufacturer’s expense, could involve an on-going
monitoring and testing regime, carried out by a nominated local
laboratory.
Caveats—New products require
substantial testing and research.
Benefits—Substitute products, even if
sales were to stay low, would model enjoyable nicotine use, showing that
legislation to end cigarette sales need not wait for the last smoker to agree.
Effectiveness of the combined policiesThe proposed policies in combination, would steadily reduce
the commercial supply of manufactured cigarettes and tobacco to zero by 2020.
Reduction of supply is essential, while the other policies are needed to reduce
demand for tobacco. Decreasing nicotine is highly effective but not until
nicotine is greatly reduced. Effective alternative nicotine products may take
several years to develop commercially and win acceptability, but they provide
proof of the concept that quitting can be pleasurable.
Demand-reduction policies, as estimated above for each
policy, in total can match the 100% reduction in commercial supply, as follows:
by increased price due to increased tobacco tax, an 18% reduction likely from
the 2010-2012 increases; reduction by increased price due to scarcity, 30% (to
be confirmed by further research); and 30% in the final year or two by loss of
smoking satisfaction due to nicotine reduction; and 24% reduction of demand due
to less relapse, also due to nicotine reduction.
These policies may overlap by influencing the same smoker,
or work synergistically with other policies to overcome inertia. We assume that
the one in four who favour an end to commercial cigarettes, will stop smoking
when sales cease, or sooner. Nearly as many again said they would welcome an end
to commercial cigarette sales if they had satisfying nicotine substitute
products to use, in which case these smokers too would be less likely to seek
black market cigarettes.
Most smokers will be persuaded (by price or reduced
nicotine) to quit smoking before the 2020 target date. Those still smoking in
2020 will be a minority paying high prices for small quantities of cigarettes
yielding very little nicotine and little satisfaction.
Once sales end, an uncertain proportion of smokers will
continue to smoke, by cultivating their own tobacco, or locating an illicit
supply. For comparison, despite the social pressures 3% to 4% of doctors
continue to smoke tobacco cigarettes,39 and 4%
of adults regularly smoke cannabis.40
Media campaigns—Campaigns in
support of the four policies will be needed to keep a high profile for the quit
or switch message—providing some choice in addition to the traditional,
abstinence-only, quit or die message. Importantly, the combined policies are
designed to impinge each day on those willing to quit, or who have begun to
quit, who must decide today to either stay quit, or relapse. With about 1000
smokers daily making a serious quit attempt lasting 24 hours or
more,13 the four policies will impinge each day
on a somewhat different 1000 smokers trying to quit.
Research—Effects of the proposed
policies should be tested in a behavioural research laboratory before adoption,
recruiting New Zealand smokers to participate in scenarios involving various
policy combinations and sequences to end cigarette
sales.36
International legal aspects will also need study with
respect to trademarks, and trade agreements. Of 2.5 million tourists a year
(including children) perhaps half a million smoke. The best way to identify
genuine smokers on arrival, and balance their needs for cigarettes without
subverting the ending of cigarette sales, needs further study.
Deaths averted—Follow-up of thousands
of individual smokers for decades after quitting smoking suggests that deaths
due to smoking will decrease markedly within 5 years and return to never-smoker
rates within 10 to 15 years.42 The benefits of
the whole nation quitting smoking are substantial. If all current smokers quit
and became ex-smokers, mortality rates would reduce by 11% for men overall and
5% for women, based on 1996–9 data.
If everyone was a never smoker (that is, an historically
nonsmoking society), all-cause mortality rates would have been 26% lower for men
and 25% lower for women.43
ConclusionFour out of five smokers regret they ever
started.13 Continued legalised sale and supply
of tobacco, through smoking, destroys the health and life of thousands of New
Zealanders annually (Māori in particular) and threatens the next
generation.
Cigarette and tobacco sales can be ended by 2020, by
strengthening the SFE Act, making cigarettes less affordable, less available and
less satisfying; and making quitting, or switching to safe effective
substitution products, more attractive.
Competing interests: The authors have
long been involved in government, various voluntary health and tobacco control
agencies, in tobacco control research, and national tobacco and drug control
programmes. None of the authors has any financial interest in any nicotine,
pharmaceutical or tobacco company. End Smoking NZ, a trust founded 2006, and
registered under the Charities Commission, is apolitical. Its policies are
described at www.endsmoking.org.nz
Funding: No funding was
received.
Author information: Murray Laugesen, Public
Health Physician, Health New Zealand Ltd, Lyttelton, Canterbury; Marewa Glover,
Director, Centre for Tobacco Control Research, University of Auckland, Auckland;
Trish Fraser, Director, Global Public Health, Glenorchy, Otago; Ross McCormick,
Professor and Associate Dean (postgraduate), Faculty of Medicine and Health
Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland; John Scott, Emeritus Professor of
Medicine, University of Auckland, Auckland. (All authors are board members of
End Smoking New Zealand Trust.)
Correspondence: Dr Murray Laugesen, End
Smoking NZ Trust, 36 Winchester St, Lyttelton 8082, New Zealand. Email: chair@endsmoking.org.nz; website www.endsmoking.org.nz
References:
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